Counting in Iraq: Update I
| A few months ago I projected that Coalition military fatalities in Iraq would surpass 9-11 World Trade Center fatalities sometime in mid-June. Yesterday, June 26th, that grim statistical milestone was achieved. World Trade Center fatalities: 2,749. Iraq Coalition military fatalities: 2,752 (and counting). The first six months of 2006 have, fortunately, been slightly less deadly than the year before, thus causing my estimate to be off by two weeks. Here's a comparison of [the first six months of] the previous four (!) years. 2006: 371 fatalities (Jan-June 27th)If this trend holds--and let's hope it does--the other projections I made in that post will also probably be off by a few weeks or months. But since the current U.S. policy is "more of the same," I have no doubt that they'll all eventually come true. [UPDATED to clarify the comparison I wanted to make.] |
by Simplicius @ 7:46 PM
At 6/27/2006 11:29:00 PM,
Hieronimo wrote…
Sadly, I think your figures are off. According to the figures here, as well as the US-by-month stats on their front page that you link to, the US fatalities alone are:
2006 (through now): 346
2005: 846
2004: 848
Which would put this year, if the trend holds, somewhat below the previous two years, but not much below.
Unless I've misunderstood somehow...
At 6/28/2006 01:00:00 AM,
Simplicius wrote…
Those were fatalities through the first six months, not the whole year.
At 6/28/2006 01:02:00 AM,
Simplicius wrote…
But I can see where the confusion crept in, which I've now tried to clarify in the post itself.
At 6/28/2006 01:05:00 AM,
Anonymous wrote…
What "trend" do you mean? The rising number of deaths?
At 6/28/2006 01:21:00 AM,
Simplicius wrote…
There were fewer deaths in Jan, Feb, March, April, and June 2006 than there were in the same months in 2005. So the number of deaths per month have been pretty consistently falling in 2006, a trend I hope will continue.
At 6/28/2006 11:21:00 AM,
Anonymous wrote…
Ah, my mistake and thanks for the clarification. I did not examine the data closely enough.
At 6/28/2006 10:02:00 PM,
Simplicius wrote…
No problem--the first version obviously wasn't the clearest of sentences.
Scribble some marginalia
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